How GLP-1s will shift consumer food habits and why it matters for agriculture

One of the biggest food trends I think in 2025 and it's definitely going to be a factor in 2026 is the impact of GLP1s and the consumers use of them. And Rubble bank has put out a paper discussing this entitled every bite counts, GLP1s and the future of Food. Here to discuss it is one of the authors is JP Frusard. He is an analyst with consumer goods at rebe based out of New York City. How are we doing today jp? I'm doing great, thank you for having me. Okay, now some of our audience may have heard of GLP1s but I guess let's start off there. What exactly are they? Well I think a lot of like a big chunk of our audience has heard about that because the awareness about this type of drugs that again they were not talking about them last year but now over 60% of Americans and Canadians and now more and more Europeans are learning about this new drug. So those drugs are, they were created first to treat diabetes too and then they realised that they have effects over weight losses. So it's a big market for this pharmaceutical companies. So they launch new products and we talk about that in our report. We have like other products in the pipeline and they are targeting exactly people who of course people that are living with obesity, but also more and more people who just to lose a few pounds or like. So like they are going from a drug that was meant to treat obesity, which is a worldwide problem, to people who want to lose a few pounds and feel better about it. Yeah. Any idea an update on how many what like what percent of the population in North America is, is consuming or using GLP1s. Yeah, we in, in the west specifically the number we're talking about is like 12, 13% are using those type of drugs. Again they are, they come in different shapes and formats and, and they're usually a weekly shot. And today we had the approval of daily pills for, to be sold in the us. That's a big, that's a big thing because people don't want to have a weekly shot, they'd rather to stick to the daily pills. So today the number is 12 and 12% are, have used or are using these drugs. If you look at about households, which is a big deal as well because if one person in the household is having, is using these drugs it may affect what you're going to put on the table, what's going to serve to other people in the same household. This number according to other sources, this is Tirkana specifically is 23% of households are. Have people using this drug. So, but again, it's still a minor, like minority number, 12%, but it's growing and it's growing fast. If you had this conversation around this time of the year, last year, we're going to be like single digits for sure. Yeah. And it's, it's still just beginning, but it is having a major impact. You know, you mentioned the food industry. The adoption of GLP1s represents both disruption and opportunity. So what kind of impact is it having on the food industry? Well, the first impact is people on those drugs, they eat less. I mean, that's the purpose, right? We're going to cut calories. The way these drugs work, you feel full for longer and you don't have that craving of having that extra drink or that snack in the middle of the afternoon. So the first impact, pretty simple, we eat less, less calories. The second impact is less quantitative and more qualitative. Once you eat less, you become a bit more careful, like what we're gonna actually eat. You need to eat something, right? What are you gonna choose? So there are some studies, and namely the study from the Cornell University that said people are cutting on some, let's say, empty calories, things that have, like, high calorie but don't add much nutrients. I'm talking about alcohol, I'm talking about fried foods or salty snacks or even very like desserts or bakery snacks. People are. I'm not saying they are cutting totally, I'm just saying that they're cutting more of those type of products and they are focusing on proteins and fibre foods because that helps you to feel longer. I have a friend that has been, is a big proponent of GLP1s and has been taking them. And one of the things that he talks about is he's just lost all desire to taste sugar. Sugary snacks are out, something that he consumed a lot of previously. He loved them. And he talks about how now, in his thirst, his quench for protein is. He'll say, like, I've never consumed so much protein in my life. Which is one of the reasons why we're seeing a lot of consumer goods food in the middle of the grocery aisle having, like, protein all of a sudden placed on the box. Everybody's trying to drive increased grammes of protein right now in the food industry. Yeah, that's how GLP1 meets other trends. Right. Because the protein mania we are seeing nowadays, like more and more. Like we have like protein shakes with 30, 35 grammes of protein that was. We didn't have that like a couple of years ago. So that's where this trend meets other trends. I like to say that GLP1, it's important, it's relevant, but it combines, it has like a catalyst effect with other trends. One of them is protein. Yes. Americans, especially Americans, they have this view that more protein the merrier. We like scientists would debate that, but we see protein as something good in comparison to carbs or fat. Right. So we focus on protein. We are seeing more and more people adding on top of protein content, also fibre content, especially people on those drugs. They are very concerned about the amount of fibre that takes because. And that comes other trends, especially about natural foods and gut health or we are talking about Maha in the United States. So people are like focusing more on. When I say a catalyst effect, I'm talking about exactly about that. How the GOP one with the all the conversation ultra processed foods and Make America Health again, they all have this combined effect towards like more animal protein, like dairy, lean cuts of meat and also against ultra processed foods that are usually low and protein low in fibre and high in sugar, fat and salt. So you could say good for the outside aisles of the grocery store, not as good for the middle aisles of the grocery store. Let's talk about bakery because we all think about, okay, bakery is going to be affected by this. And again, I spend a lot of my time here talking about bakery. If you see the perimeter of the store, there's growth. There is growth in the perimeter of the store because again, you may eat less, you have less cravings for carbs or even portions in the breakfast is going to be small. But you say, you know what, I'm going to try something different. I'm going to have brioche or croissant. I'm going to add value to that amount. Can be a smaller amount, but I want to add value to that eating occasion. And you're seeing growth in the end of the store and some of this growth is coming expansion of the centre of the store also because consumers want something different as well. Now you mentioned big news today, that now there's going to be a daily pill or it has been approved. The other thing I've heard a little bit about is what microdosing could look like going forward for some people. Did that get mentioned at all in your paper? No, we don't go that specific because again, that's a very medical and subjective discussion. I mean talking to people, I mean again, friends, that has been just droves. I mean Some people start for higher doses and then go to micro doses just to maintain. Even the pharmaceutical companies, they are saying that you can combine injections the couple first of months or weeks and do like a. Maintenance on lower doses on this newly approved oral pills. So again, that's something people need to discuss with their doctors and, and come up with a solution. I don't think there's one size fits all here. What you do see is that this is becoming not something not only for people living with obesity, which again is already a huge milestone, but already it's going to other types of demographics, people who really want to go to their ideal weight and that may extend the penetration of the drugs to a much larger audience in North America. And as we say in the report, growing very fast in Europe as well. What's the, Is there pushback? Like, are there potential consequences that some companies, maybe the medical profession is concerned about? Did that come up at all in your research? No, our reports is mostly focused on the consequences for food. Of course, I would say if there is some sort of pushback is because some sort of like side effects. But we haven't, we haven't seen that much. We're seeing a growing base of users for these drugs which has been. And we think that this 12% number that I mentioned, we're going to probably become larger because these drugs have become more accessible. We are seeing like new channel, new distribution channels. For instance, Amazon partnering with Weight Watch on this, on the distribution of these drugs. We have seen compound pharmacies and like making these drugs more, more, more affordable. Politicians here in the highest office in North America try to add that to insurance and make that those more affordable. Yes. So again, there's something new and growing fast and it's a medical discussion of how people are going to achieve that. But I think that the main takeaway for us in the food industry is to look at that very carefully because that may affect volumes and what people actually will eat more and less. Yeah, you know, I was listening to a radio programme the other day and they were talking about how some restaurants think the example they gave was Olive Garden, which is well known for its portion sizes. And one of the things that they were doing was they were offering a piece of the menu where it was much smaller portions than what people are now. It was kind of pushed from an affordability standpoint. Here's a cheaper dish for you to buy. Again, trends meeting other trends. But at the same time was very appealing to people that were looking for smaller portions that were maybe consuming Like a GLP one that we were talking about. I'm curious if one of the next movement here is for a lot more restaurants in the food service trade to offer smaller portions in America, where portion sizes of restaurants are well known to be larger than other areas of the world. Yeah, I think that yes, smaller portions are giving like people don't want to waste food. Right. So if you. And also affordability, if you can make like something more catered for this audience. But it's not only about quantity, it's all about giving options to, to consumers to choose. Like for instance, like side ciders. Like if you, you may have, you may wanted the same burger but instead of the, the fries you want some veggies or something different. I think it's about giving options to consumer because this is something very subjective and each person in each different occasion, they're gonna feel like more eating something more of something or less of something else. So it's, yeah, it's one challenge, but also an opportunity for restaurants as well to attract those guys by giving them more options. And also of course trying to understand how they can serve like smaller portions, but also like most customised. And of course we're going to continue to see more innovation in this space. You know, the next generations of these drugs that will take this even further to wrap up, I guess, you know, where does this go? What is some of the outcomes we'll be talking about in a year when we talk about GLP1s and the trend of increased consumption of these drugs and improved technology? I think you're going to see more options, more like foods catered for this audience. But of course I think that all food companies, they are spending some time right now with their R and D to understand not only size, not only more protein, more fibre, but to understand how those drugs affect our taste. And there are some studies on this regard. Maybe, maybe you don't need our cookies as sweet as before. Maybe my saltness perception is different or like for people on those drugs. So I think there's a lot of challenge of rethinking the formulations of goods out there and maybe creating lines not only for GLP1s, they are doing that the same things for Maha and making foods less processed with different ingredients. So I think all these trends goes together and give a lot of challenges and opportunities for the industry especially. I mean we didn't talk about briefly about that. But also volumes are flat to say, slightly negative in this year because consumers are concerned on the cost of living and they don't want to they are less keen to try new products. So I think that they have a lot on their plate right now and to bring new products with different formulations that attract the curiosity of those of their consumer that are spending a lot of money and time going to these drugs to have to change their body, to change their diets. So there's an opportunity on the side. And for restaurants, the same thing. They also losing traffic is negative right now. So they can add new portions to attract consumers that decide to be home and so they can be aware of what they are eating. We've been talking lots about food, but the soft drink industry has also. This has got to be really impacting them. Yes, it's. That's not something I spend a lot of time looking at. We have our beverage teams that knows much more about that. But again, look at the so much innovation we have in beverage right now. We talk about gut health before and now we have like big movements of for instance PepsiCo making acquisitions to different types of soda that adds probiotics and has lower calories. So that's part of the innovation that we are already seeing beverage but we expect to see across the food fraud industry. We've been talking to JP Broussard. He's an analyst in consumer goods at RebelBank. He's based in New York City. But you know what, he was so kind to join us. He's home for the holidays in Brazil. And JP I will let you get back to that beautiful scenery that is behind you and enjoy yourself. Okay, thanks so much for joining us. Thanks for having me. Happy holidays.