Volatility continues to define cattle markets as the industry moves into 2026, with steady cash trade in the U.S. but sharp swings in futures tied to ongoing uncertainty around screwworm concerns in Mexico near the U.S. border. Anne Wasko of Gateway Livestock Exchange says the cash market held together this past week, with southern trade reported at $233 and northern sales at $232 to $233 live, while dressed trade sat at $365.
Wholesale values offered a bit more optimism. Choice cutout gained $4 on the week to $360.75 (Thursday close), helped in part by reduced kills as packers work through negative margins. Wasko says that January demand is typically muted, but February and March often bring a seasonal lift.
Next week could provide important direction, with the U.S. Cattle Inventory and Cattle on Feed reports (both pegged to January 1) expected to shed light on herd rebuilding signals and feedlot placement trends. Analysts are watching for slightly more replacement heifers and a marginally larger cowherd, while placements are anticipated to remain softer with the border situation still influencing feeder movement.
On the consumer side, retail prices remain historically high hitting “...a new record high $9.55 a pound for that choice retail beef,” Wasko says, up 20 per cent from December 2024, pushing questions about how long demand can hold at these levels.
In Western Canada, fed prices firmed, with Alberta trade reported at $505 to $508 delivered. Meanwhile, feeder cattle imports from the U.S. are surging. With October data showing over 120,000 head moved north, 2025 imports hit 417,000 head through 10 months—already past the prior record. As Wasko puts it, “...as the Canadian cowherd gets smaller...feedlots have gone to find the supply to fill it.”
Trending
Geopolitical drama and policy uncertainty are once again driving volatility across commodity markets, leaving farmers to interpret fast-moving signals that don’t always tell the full story. To unpack how to navigate war-influenced markets Shaun Haney speaks with Arlan Suderman of StoneX to discuss how global conflict, biofuel policy, and trade dynamics are shaping grain and...
Read more »
This episode of the Beef Market Update is brought to you by Bright Young get the mix they love most. Talk to your retailer about Bright Young's forage seed options for a happy, healthy herd.
It's time for the Beef Market Update on real agriculture. And as always, we're joined by Anne Wasco, the Gateway Livestock Exchange. Ann, how we doing?
Good morning. I'm good, John.
It's crazy chat with it wild and crazy times. Of course, in the beef markets. I've been able to run into a lot of different ranchers and feeders across Canada, U.S. and everybody's like, what's going on with these markets? It's just like everybody seems to be in the same, the same kind of boat. What happened this week in the cash market?
Well, okay, so I guess we, we need to quantify the two things. Cash markets in the US were steady, but as we've alluded to time and time again, expect a pile of volatility in futures markets like we saw in 2025, and we're just into 2026, but it's holding true to lots of volatility. So yesterday, Friday, big down in live cattle and feeder cattle markets. Again, lots of rumours continuing to swirl. Well, the rumour. This part isn't a rumour. You know, there are more cases of screwbirm closer to the Texas border. Since the end of the year, I'm hearing of eight. And so there's, there's certainly storeys around that. But how, how, you know, in previous times through 2025, that sent the market shooting higher and this time it's sent it shooting lower. So who knows what's behind all the storeys. But nevertheless, lots of, lots of things to do with that. Mexico, U.S. border and feeder cattle.
Well, yeah, and, you know, one of the things that really caught people's attention was the Commissioner of the Texas Department of Agriculture, Sid Miller, was on RFD TV and, you know, was talking about these cases of screwworm and basically said it's going to be in the us. And I think that that was kind of. I think a lot of people were thinking that in the background and, like, concerned about it. But the way that he said it, just that bluntly, and Commissioner Miller is very blunt, but the way he said that, I really caught, I think, people's attentions.
Yeah. So it certainly caught some attention in Chicago, let's put it that way. So big, big move back to the markets, though, themselves, they were steady. So cash, both in the south and Texas was 233, and the north, 232 to 233 live and 365 delivery draughts. So those were all same, same levels as last week. Now that choice beef market, we're in January, we don't expect anything wonderful. But as we move on into February and March, it should start to grind higher. We did see that this week. It did pick up four bucks. Remember, with packers losing money, we've got kills are ratcheted back running at pretty small kill levels. So that is helping to support this cutout. So up four bucks this week. 36075 was the Thursday night close. That select market is only back a dollar, which is telling us that there's lots of choice and prime in the market and that that select product is basically priced at the same money right now. Now, next Friday, Shaun, lots of reports to talk about. Some key reports that, you know, we always watch for to confirm or, or deny kind of what we're thinking. And the one will of course be the US cattle inventory report for January 1st and then also the US cattle on feed report for January 1st. So just so producers can be, or listeners can kind of be watching and looking for those reports next week.
And do we, do we expect surprises there like, you know, we have on the crop side here this past Monday and boy, it, it blew people away. Now the cattle side, it tends to be a little bit less so. But what are we expecting from that report?
Well, we're expecting, and I think this is what's in the marketplace. And again, you're right, there's, you don't, you don't know, you don't expect a surprise until it is the surprise. Right. So we are expecting to see a few more replacement heifers in the mix. That's kind of what most analysts in the US have been talking about. A slightly tiny, tiny bit bigger us cowherd. We're talking maybe 100,000 head, which is nothing in terms of US numbers. So that's what the expectations are. And of course, with that border still closed on the on feed report, we're expecting placements in December to still have been down. So that's kind of going into the report. We'll see what happens. But you're right, they're not quite as lively as what we often see, these crop reports.
Well, they're gonna be lively. Hope it's good for the markets because the, the crop one was not good for the markets.
No, I know, I know lively livelihood can be defined either direction.
But we should mention it though because from, from a cost of feed perspective, it was you know, would be looked as a positive piece of not good for the farmer but good for, for the feed yard or somebody has to buy some corn for feed.
Well, certainly, you know, if, if folks are looking at especially long fed cattle, you know, here's an opportunity from a risk management perspective, you know, to take, take some action if you will. But certainly that, that is a opportunity, I guess. In terms of cattle producers and feeding.
Cattle, what are we seeing on the retail side of the consumer facing?
Yeah, well, the December report came out for the US and we're not surprised at this, but it was a new record high 955A pound for that choice retail beef. That's up 20% from December of 24. But it, you know, again now are we wondering kind of 950, 960 what was what we'd previously thought might be the near the highs for where retail prices could go before consumers say whoa, we'll see. You know, the markets certainly got there quickly. So that is something to watch so far, Shaun though, you know, demand continues to be solid and really you can't deny that. And as we finished the, the data off from 25.
Yeah, we, we have crumpled and tore up all of those priceless demand charts that we took, you know, when we were at school taking ag econ like that. Those are, we've blown that apart. You know, it's interesting this week I was been flying all over the place and on one of my stops was the Minneapolis airport and there was a, like a little bar beside the my gate and so I was going to have a quick meal and I had, I think it was called a steak bowl. And so it was meant to be some beef or steak strips on top of some rice. Okay. And with avocado like I love that kind of stuff. And I'm not kidding there it if it was one and a half ounces of beef, I would be surprised. Now the like right away my mind thought to trying to keep the cost down and like, not like airports are really concerned about the price of food but you know, trying to keep that cost down for the consumer. And one of the ways that you do that is you just lessen not, not to the portion size but the, one of the ingredient sizes and that those little steak strips are a lot more expensive than they were, you know, five years ago.
Exactly. So that whole price point and we've heard that time and time again as we've gone, you know, as we've moved this needle along, it's, it's been a Key factor in what, how retailers and restaurants are responding. Before we leave markets, just because we've got local listeners as well, I did want to make sure I get a little bit of good news out there. So the Alberta cash market was higher this week, Shaun. 505 to 508 delivered. So that's five to eight bucks, 100 higher than. And really we haven't had a pile of trade since the start of the year. So that, that was good to see. And then also, Even though the U.S. excuse me. Report is out next week for on feed, we did see Canfacts release the Alberta Saskatchewan numbers for January 1 on feed. Numbers here in the west and numbers down a little bit, down 1%. But that placement number was, was off in December. Now to finish up on a little bit of what's going on in western Canada, I think we can't not talk about feeder cattle imports. I know we talked about it last time, but we've had another month's update. October data come in. Over 120,000 head of feeder cattle moved north in the month of October. That blows all records out of the water. One month. One month. And so that means we're sitting. That was up 85% from last October, but it means we're sitting up 34%. And I know I called you out last time in terms of your forecast for the year end. So this is only 10 months of data, Shaun, and we're already at 417,000 head. If we have a big October. I don't even want to say that.
Big November. If we have a big November.
Sorry. Big November number. Yeah. Which I think we could, we could.
Hit a half million.
I didn't want to say that number. Yeah.
What was the previous record?
480 last year. 400.
It was 4.
Okay.
So last year was 400 I had predicted.
Let's clarify. We're in 2026 now. 2024 was 400. This is the 25 data that we're collecting. So when we say last year, we have to be careful about that. So in 2024 was the all time record. 400,000 had ramported. We are currently sitting with 10 months of data in 2025 at 417.
So we have already busted the record up.
Busted the record. And we've got two months and November is going to be big.
Wow.
So, Kate, just again, not everybody lives in this on a daily basis. Why? Because people are like, wait a minute, the Canadian dollar sucks. Like, what is going on here? Why is, why are we going to blow this record away in 2025 numbers.
Well, I think this has been building over time, Shaun. We've been talking about it since 2017. As the Canadian cowherd gets smaller and the calf crop isn't there to fill the capacity of what we have in feedlots and packing plant capacity here in Canada, feedlots have gone to find the supply to fill it. That's American feeder cattle. And so that continues to go on. Our cowherd continues to get smaller. We, we continue to import more feeder cattle. It's capacity utilisation at the feedlot level and then at the packing level. So that's where I think this is coming from. We're filling what we don't have, we don't have. The domestic coward.
Yeah. Again, shows the importance of trade right there. Absolutely. And thanks so much for joining us here today. Really appreciate it. All the best to you. Enjoy your weekend. Okay.
Okay. Thanks, you too, Shaun.
Thank you for downloading this episode of Beef Market Update, brought to you by Bright young cheque out their silage and grazing corn stock blends or custom build your own mix for a happy, healthy herd. Talk to your retailer today.
