Cattle markets are unsettled this week as political talk and trade speculation weigh on sentiment. In this episode of Beef Market Update, Anne Wasko of the Gateway Livestock Exchange joins Shaun Haney to unpack the recent volatility and what it means for producers heading into winter.
Wasko says the downturn began after mid-October highs when several headlines, including U.S. President Trump’s comment that “beef prices are too high,” talk of expanded Argentinian imports, and renewed speculation about the Mexican border reopening, triggered selling pressure. “With that much air under it... those four specific issues were able to send the money to the sidelines,” she says.
December live cattle are about US$30/cwt below the mid-October peak, and feeders are off more than US$60/cwt. Even so, Wasko stresses that supply hasn’t changed and demand remains “exceptional... the best year ever.” The concern now, she says, is how ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and consumer behaviour might influence prices in the months ahead.
Cash cattle prices are holding steady, but feeder markets tied to 2026 are seeing sharper declines. Retail beef prices have held steady for three consecutive months at record or near-record levels, sitting about 4% higher than last year. Pork is up 8%, and chicken is up 10%, as all proteins continue to trend higher.
“We build this bull market over months and take the air out in days,” says Wasko. “Volatility — that’s the key word here.”
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Let's talk what's going on in the cattle markets. Here for the Beef Market Update is Anne Wasco, the Gateway Livestock Exchange. Ann, how are we doing?
Well, I'm fine. I hear you getting a little bit of snow in your neck of the woods.
Yeah, I'm up in Red Deer here today for agri trade and definitely there is some snow flying. Winter is, winter is, he's entering, he's entering the playing surface here now. So I guess it had to come eventually. Had to come eventually, exactly. Okay, let's talk about what the Lindsay hosted the show two weeks ago when we did our last Beef Market update. What a ride the last two weeks have been for the cattle markets. I guess what is going we had the president make some comments about potentially, you know, beef prices were too high. Need to kind of fix that. The market responded with some pre risk off selling. Where do we sit here today? What's going on?
Well, yeah, let's, let's dial it back a little bit. If you go back to just before Lindsey and I talked two weeks ago. So on October 14, futures markets made their highs, both live cattle and feeder cattle cash cattle prices were coming along. As we know in the country, feeder cattle and calf prices were extremely strong. And just to make a note before I forget, that's kind of when they all talked in terms of those feeder cattle and calf prices. But with the comments and it wasn't just the one thing, but the comment as you referred to in terms of beef prices are too high from, from the president's mouth. And then of course the talk about expanding Argentinian beef imports, the TRQ or the tariff rate quota for potentially four times more, you know, and again this is just talk from the administration and then some speculation. And we've had this on and off since the border was closed back in July. But on and off speculation of the Mexican border reopening. And so that reared its ugly head the week after that. So all of these are coming within days. And then the Brazilian government talking about getting a US Deal done and reducing their tariff rate, meaning more beef from Brazil into the US and again these were all just talking points. There was no announcements. But that's kind of all the market needed, when you had that much air under it, that those kind of four specific issues or topics were able to send the money to the sidelines. The money was worried anyways. So when it went running and the futures go into a tailspin. So in a nutshell, just looking at December live cattle, it's down $30, 100 USD from that peak in mid October, and feeder cattle are down over $60 USD 100 from that peak.
So here's the question. Is this, is this, is this a market correction where we go up from here because the fundamentals have really not changed. We. Or is this a leaky balloon that we just sort of drift lower here because of all the uncertainty that the White House has created on the markets?
Well, I think now, Shaun, you're right. The fundamentals haven't changed. The supply is still the same for what we know on demand. We've got a government shutdown on right now. So we don't have all the normal reports we do to tell us what's going on with demand. From what we can tell, it's still good. It's been exceptional in 2025, the best year ever. So those pieces still are intact. But these, these things that the market is worried about, depending on how they play out, they, they could in fact, you know, keep this market, maybe not here, but certainly not going back to where we came from. So a lot depends on. Of course, don't forget this Mexican feeder supply thing is a big deal. You know, we're talking about a million or over a million head of potential. So if that comes to fruition sooner rather than later, you know, the market's got to figure that out. That does become a supply implication. Right. And same with the Argentinian beef imports. It's probably not a big amount, but some. And the Brazil, you know, so all of these pieces do equal into supply at some point, potentially the biggest one being the Mexican feeder cattle. So, and, and do consumers, the economies. We're getting news from the economy on the economic side that things are a little shakier. So is it enough news for the consumer to. Well, the president says beef prices are too high. Maybe they are too high, you know, so, yeah, we don't know the answers to those questions, but I think it would take a lot to get the train back on the tracks.
Well, that's. I don't like that. I do like the fact that you're recording here just after the open on Friday and the market's strong here today, but based on the volatility, we've seen who knows how we end the day or where we open on Monday. Right. That's, that's the challenge here right now.
Yeah. And volatility, that's the key word here. So I mean we've built this bull market over months and we take the air out in days. You know, the most of this down came in 10 days, 10 trading days. So just, just crazy. Now what goes up must come down. We understand that.
Yeah.
But you know, it's, it, it has end markets do tend to come off faster than they go up. Those are all things we know. But. Yeah. How, how do you, how do you figure from here? I, you know, the impact is for sure. We've seen cash cattle holding together. So on that note, Shaun, Texas, Kansas today down about 2, $3 from last week. So 232. Northern trade was actually steady at 230, so not a big difference there. And then here In Alberta market, 493 to 495 delivered dress, that's off a little bit from last week. But the spot cash cattle in terms of the fat cattle are kind of holding together. But where we see more and more of the decline. Excuse me, is in the feeder cattle market because those cattle are for this 2026 market that has got so much uncertainty around it because of what's just happened. Yeah.
And because of the uncertainty, it's gonna be really fascinating to see kind of where these prices go in the, you know, between now and the end of the year. I guess let's just use that kind of two month time frame. Are we more likely, and I, you don't need to answer this, but are we more likely to be at that 250 on the December future or are we more likely to be at the 200? That's what a lot of, you know, because at one time, 200, you couldn't imagine live cattle being through 200. And I, I think for a lot of producers those are the questions that they're having to deal with from a risk management standpoint in trying to, to manage their inventory, manage their sales, manage their procurement. You know, depending where you are in, in the value chain, it's just a heightened level of uncertainty. That really means you got to step up that risk management plan.
Yeah. Lots of volatility and uncertainty on the table for sure. And some of these things will come. Well, we'll find out more news as we go forward. So for example, on the demand side of. I got a second to just talk about the retail side. So we did get, and this is going to be a key piece in 2026. What does demand for beef look like? We came through this phenomenal year this year. What does it look like next year? We kind of know supplies, they're going to be tighter next year. What happens on the demand side? So retail beef prices and stats can came out for September. This week they were basically the same as where they've been for July, August now, three months in a row. Yes, they're at record or near record levels, but they haven't climbed higher. So is that a signal? They're 4% higher than last year at this time. Pork is up 8% from this time last year and chickens up 10. So, you know, again, all the proteins have moved higher for sure, while all food products have moved higher. And now we kind of sit at this level. So are we at that point where consumers have said, okay, this is. These are high enough prices, but they went along with some pretty good cattle prices as well. So now the market needs to settle those things out as we go into next year. See how consumers are feeling. Look at jobs data, you know, look at what's going on with inflation, interest rates, all those things.
Yeah, because the consumer, we know this. The consumer, through these higher prices, has really stepped up. They have. They've shown the proof is in the pudding. They have a taste for beef. And, you know, whether it's the. How many people are using GLP1 blockers like the Ozempics of the world, from a. You know, which is increasing people's taste for red meat, proteins and things like that. There's a lot happening in this dynamic market. And beef demand has been one of the positives for sure. If you would, you know, five years ago we're having this conversation, which we were, and you said, okay, we're going to have prices at these levels and demand still going to be going strong. We're both like, no, I'm taking under on that one. And it's.
Yeah, Shaun, you don't even have to go back. A few years ago in 2024, we said it's going to be hard to hold beef demand together like we saw in 24 and 25, and it blew it out of the window. So, you know, again, it's. It has been substantially stronger than anybody thought. So that's. That's been a huge plus for beef prices, no matter with all this outside noise. That's a true thing.
Fascinating stuff. I'm curious to see what, what the next steps are. Is there actually implementation of some of these steps that are being discussed or is it talk and not the the act?
My understanding. Shaun, right now these are talks. Good. Could they move into something. But we just haven't seen the ink dry on anything. They're talks.
Yeah. Great stuff. Hey Ann, thanks a lot for joining us here today on the Beef Market Update. Really appreciate it.
Thanks Ron. You too. Bye.
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