North American cattle markets have entered a new phase of uncertainty, with prices falling on both sides of the border and growing concerns over demand and trade disruptions compounding the pressure.
“This week was a tough one,” said Anne Wasko of the Gateway Livestock Exchange, in this Beef Market Update. “The market certainly has had this bearish vibe for some time."
In the U.S., fed cattle prices fell sharply. Texas trade was down $4 to $6, closing in the range of US$222 to $224 per hundredweight. Nebraska markets also softened, with live cattle prices ranging from $215 to $218 and dressed sales dropping by $10 to settle between $340 and $345.
Canada followed suit. In Alberta, dressed prices landed between $490 and $495 per hundredweight, down $3 from last week, while live trade saw offers around $295. “Our weights are big too,” Wasko says, referencing record carcass weights reported in Alberta and Ontario.
The boxed beef market provided little relief. “The choice was off two bucks. 371 was the number last night,” Wasko reported. “This is normally when we would have had some of that up heading into U.S. Thanksgiving next week and the holiday season in December.”
These declines come at a time when carcass weights are at record highs, indicating cattle feeders are falling behind on marketings. Lower kill numbers and sluggish throughput are contributing to backlog pressure, dragging prices and sentiment downward.
Adding to the complexity are shifting trade conditions. The U.S. government’s temporary tariff on Brazilian beef, which had buoyed markets earlier this year, was recently lifted. “That was kind of the launching point for a lot of these commodities,” said Wasko. “If that factor… has now been reversed, the market’s trying to get back to that level."
Meanwhile, the closure of the Mexican border to feeder cattle remains unresolved. “Historically, kind of 1.2 to 1.4 million head of feeders have moved from Mexico into the U.S. on an annual basis,” Wasko says. “I do think the U.S. will go back to their regular way of business… as soon as that border opens."
Domestically, Western Canada’s feeder calf market showed signs of stabilization this week following a multi-week downturn, partially due to smaller volumes. The latest Canfax Cattle on Feed Report indicates slightly higher feedlot inventories, a signal that feeder imports from the U.S. may still be ongoing despite a lack of recent trade data.
All of this unfolds against a backdrop of policy whiplash and limited data availability, making it increasingly difficult for cattle feeders and ranchers to plan ahead. “The market's off hard today,” she says. “Understandably, the markets don't know what to do. They're trading off in this uncertainty, and it's very frustrating for sure."
As market participants await more clarity from U.S. government reports and border policy updates, volatility is expected to remain a central feature of the cattle trade into year-end.
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Let's do the Beef Market Update and we'll spring in Anne Wasco, the Gateway Livestock Exchange. And how are we doing?
Well, we've had better weeks, but I personally am just fine.
Good. Yeah, it has been a difficult week for the cattle markets. I will say this, I've been getting a bunch of audience feedback. There was an audience member that said, you know what, I'm a young cow calf producer. My favourite things about Reel Ag Radio is hearing Anne Wasco. Why is she only on every two weeks? I want her to be every week. So you're in demand and the way these markets are moving, we may have to change that. So hey, what's going on in these cattle markets here? Just break it down for us. Of course there's a lot of variables, but yeah.
As you know and the listeners know, I like to start with that cash. It just gives us a place to start. And it was a tough week, Shaun, as I, as I alluded to already. So in Texas, we're down 4 to $6 this week, 222 to 224. Nebraska was also off 215 to 218. Their dress market's $10 lower, 340 to 345. So the market certainly has had this bearish vibe for some time. Well, literally since October 14th, if you want to be specific. And it's just really struggled to get past the worry and the uncertainty of all this news, which we'll talk about. But let me get through my known stats. Cutout is of course following this and this is a bit of a concern. So the Choice was off 2 bucks. 371 was the number last night. And why it's a little bit of a concern to me, Shaun, is that this is normally when we would have had some of that up heading into us Thanksgiving next week and the holiday season in December. So I think a good word is it's been very disappointing, that wholesale market, which then leads you to wonder is that being affected by a disappointing retail market? And so all those demand pieces are. I've got big question marks behind them, let's put it that way. At this time of year it should have been better than it is. But granted, we came off the best prices ever going into October. Cattle feeders in both countries are behind in terms of their marketing. So carcass weights have gotten big record weights two weeks ago in the US and record weeks for us here in both in Alberta and Ontario. So it's showing you these slower marketing, smaller kills, we aren't getting through the cattle. And that just is an added weight over the years that you and I have talked, Shaun. That's always an added weight to the market. So that's happening. We are going to finally start to see. And you've talked about other commodities, but start to see some US Government reports. Out today will be the US Cattle on feed report, the guesstimates for this afternoon's report down 2% for the numbers on feed on November 1st. And both placements and marketing is down 8%. And again, Shaun, it's going to really show, I think when it comes out this afternoon that the placements into the southern US because of that Mexican border still being closed down. But we've seen placements into the northern tier states, especially Nebraska, feeding areas up so very different regional placements. And we'll talk more about Mexico in a second or you're looking like you want to jump in.
I want to ask, I just want to clarify, did you say the boxed beef price is also receded this week?
Yes, down to down two.
Okay. So here's, here's what's kind of fascinating. If, if we see right now we have packers losing a lot of money, okay? Now if the box beef price held and the price to the producer went down, then we're actually, you know, some of the things the president has done here at the White House level is going to, you know, is trying to rectify some of the losses that packers have. But if we have the box beef price coming down, got to watch that retail price. If that retail price stays sticky because there's a lot of demand in the grocery store and they, you know, the grocery industry doesn't accommodate what the president wants. All that's happened is we've put more margin in large grocers.
And of course, again, because we're missing data and one of them is that retail data in the US we can only speculate. But you're right on. Right. The tree you're barking up. You're right on. I do want to talk about the local market. I'm going to.
Yeah, go ahead.
I'm going to agree to just what we were off as well. Steady to 3 lower, dressed in Alberta, 490 to 495. There was some live trade at 295. So that'll be awfully bit from last week. And as I mentioned, our weights are big too, if you're, if you're a cow calf producer. And obviously there's some listening. That market did appear to find some stability this week on the calf market. It had come down quite a bit over the, over the previous three or four weeks, but it did look like it found some stability because numbers are certainly smaller, as we know, in Western Canada. One thing we do have, I won't get into details on it, but Canfax did release their Western Canadian cattle on feed report for November 1st last Friday. And in a nutshell, Shaun, on feed numbers continue to be up a wee bit and that tells me placements for down a wee bit. But that certainly tells me we continue even though we don't have trade numbers since August because of the government shutdown. We'll get them shortly. But my, my guess is that feeder imports have continued to roll north because we've got 1% or more more cattle on feed in Western Canada. So that's going to be my guess, but we'll confirm that when we get some numbers out. I think, you know, looking at the, looking at the futures market this morning, lots of volatility, lots of uncertainty, hugely frustrating. But the market's just simply trying to deal with all of this news that's coming out of the US in terms of this might happen, this might happen, this might happen. One of them that has happened overnight is the Brazilian tariffs. The tariffs on Brazilian beef and other products, but in our case beef have been removed the extra tariff. So this is the tariff that was placed back in July, if you will. And that was kind of the markets, if you look at a church on that was the launching point for a lot of these, the commodities on the cattle and live cattle and feeder cattle side. So if that launching point, if we're now that that factor, that policy has now been reversed. The market's trying to get back to that level, in my opinion. So that's what's going on. That's one of them. The other one you and you had, I think you had a listener kind of reach out to you on the, on the Mexican topic.
Yes.
So maybe reverbage that the question, oh.
I don't have it, I don't have it in front of me. But it was about, I think it.
Was basically, you know, how many are we going to expect to cross the border? You know, when the border does reopen between Mexico and the U.S. just as a reminder, historically, kind of 1.2 to 1.4 million head of feeders have moved from Mexico into the US on an annual basis. And of course, it's been, you know, for the most part, closed for all of 25. So I guess my. I thought, first of all, when you said it through. Great question, and I wish I had a better answer because we don't know the reopening date yet. The markets are trying to guess when that might happen. Sometime in 26. I think we can all agree to that. But when is it January? Is it April? Is it further along? So that's the hardest thing. But in response, specifically to the question that once the border does reopen, I do think the US Will go back to their regular way of business that is bringing those lighter cattle in to grow and finish as they have over the last many years. So I do think that gets returned. It's not like those cattle are gone. We've always got a, you know, we've got the old crop calves, and then we'll have the new crop calves. So I do think that will return quite quickly. The economics, I guess that's where I'm leaning, Shaun. The economics are going to support that, I. E. Feeder cattle market much stronger in the US Than that in Mexico. So that's. And that's why those cattle move north and that's why we'll return to moving theatres as soon as that border opens.
Man, I'll tell you what, if it wasn't the market uncertainty and volatility and the political risk here now, where does. Because here's the thing. The White House is doing this today or, you know, in on this moment here in November 21st. It doesn't mean that on November 26th there's not a reversal and a policy change and this becomes very, very difficult for ranchers and feeders to try to steer through this. It's. Especially with, especially when there is so much risk on the table from a pricing perspective.
Well, right. And especially when some of these policies, well, they, they, obviously they impact supply. When we start talking about Mexican cattle and, or Brazilian beef, but then other things, talking about retail beef prices are too high, well, then that's a demand worry. Right. And so that's why the market's having all of these reactions and big reactions. You know, the market's off hard today. So understandably, the markets don't know what to do. They're trading off in this uncertainty. And it's, it's very frustrating for sure.
Ann, thanks so much for joining us here today for the Beef Market Update.
Okay, thanks Shaun.
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