Despite industry expectations of a seasonal pullback, cattle markets are once again surprising analysts and producers alike, climbing higher in early October. Volatility remains the dominant theme, as prices fluctuate weekly in both cash and futures markets, while beef imports rise sharply to offset tightening domestic supply.
“Every time the market kind of does a fake… you flip the page to the next week and everything runs back up again,” says Anne Wasko of Gateway Livestock Exchange, in the latest Beef Market Update.
In the U.S., cash trade remained steady last week, holding near US$230 live and US$358 dressed in Nebraska. Canadian prices, however, saw some softening. Alberta’s dressed trade settled around $507–508 delivered, with live prices reported at $305–306 FOB. Ontario markets held firmer, with delivered prices ranging from $520 to $523.
Canadian beef supply remains tight, with year-to-date exports down 4 percent, and significant declines in fed cattle and cow exports. This shortfall has led to a marked increase in beef imports, up 14 percent in September alone and roughly 18 percent year-to-date. Much of the imported product is lean trim and lower-value cuts used in ground beef and processing, sourced from Australia, New Zealand, and Paraguay.
“When our cow kill is down this much, we simply don’t have enough hamburger beef for what consumers demand in Canada,” Wasko says, driving imported product demand.
Processors are facing margin pressure, caught between firm live cattle prices and retailers still sensitive to high consumer pricing. Although Statistics Canada reported a slight dip in August beef prices compared to July, year-over-year numbers show beef prices still up by 10 percent, with pork and chicken also up by double digits.
Feedlots, meanwhile, are grappling with capital intensity as costs to fill yards continue to climb. “You just need a lot more money to fill that feed yard,” Wasko notes.
Looking ahead, Wasko cautions that supplies may tighten further into 2026, with limited signs of heifer retention in both Canada and the U.S. The unexpected removal of one million head across the Mexico-U.S. border this year only added to the market’s bullish undertone.
As holiday demand looms, the sector remains in a critical balancing act—dependent on resilient consumer demand and cautious optimism across the supply chain.
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Let'S get to the Beef Market Update with Anne Wasko, the Gateway Livestock Exchange. Anne, how are we doing?
I am doing great, Shaun.
That's good, that's good. Well, it's, we are into, we're very much into the mid part here of October and I am, I'm out of ways to describe the market action and direction that we have seen in the cattle markets. This is, you've been doing this for a while. You, this is unprecedented, unheard of. We just never seen it before.
Yeah, yeah, no, definitely. And again, every time the market kind of does a fake like it did last week in terms of, you know, markets futures coming off pretty substantially, you flip the page to the next week and everything runs back up again. So at some point that will end. But every time we kind of thought we were getting near to it, the market takes another run. So on the cash this week though, Shaun, I think things were kind of steady and quiet in the US in terms of pricing. The futures did make a big run back after their, after the big drop last week. But nevertheless it's still kind of quiet in that Texas camp Kansas area. So there hasn't been anything trading there. But it looks to be steady based on what's going on in the north. Nebraska was, is looks like 230 live which will be steady and 358 dress. So we're gonna, we're gonna expect south to be steady as well. The cattle which had dropped a lot from peaking in the first part of September over the last month, it did kind of find a bottom. It looks like this week it clawed back a couple bucks. Last night the Choice cattle closed at 36520 and the select still sitting back about 21 bucks. So pretty normal on that front. So we'll be watching. I, I'll go on and finish Alberta markets in a second here, but we'll be watching really closely. Of course here we are into pretty much close to the middle of, of October or Canadian Thanksgiving at least. And from here forward, typically that cut out will see some improvement. We're going into what's historically a good demand time in the U.S. especially U.S. thanksgiving, the Christmas holiday season, New Year's parties, those kinds of things. But after the kind of summer we've Come through with amazing demand. Does that happen again? Are we going to see the season? So that's kind of the things we're watching for. It does look like I say the cutout did see a big drop over the last month. Looks like maybe found a bottom this week. So that's what we'll be watching now. The Alberta market, Canadian markets were off a little bit this week, Shaun, in terms of the cash for fat cattle, not feeder cattle fats for 507 to 508 delivered dress. So that's kind of. We had a big range last week and these prices are at the lower end of last week's range. So the camp facts average will come in lower. There was a little bit of live trade 305 to 306 fob. And again that's at the end of last week's bottom of last week's range and it also looks like Ontario prices 520 to 523 delivered. So same thing, a little lower than last week. So that's, that's kind of. And we've got a few more cattle kicking around in, in Canada at this point in time. So this isn't all that surprising. I think you know to build on a couple of reports that I want to talk about that came from Stats can this week. I think the storyline really all year, 10 months now has been this tighter beef supply. We've seen it through smaller, smaller harvest level levels that we've talked about. The smaller cattle on feed numbers that we've talked about that means smaller beef exports. And year to date Canada we're sitting down 4%. We've also got fewer live cattle going to the US this year. We've got fed cattle exports in August were down 7% and cows were down 11%. So all everything's down. The one thing that's up, that's filling in that gap of shorter supply is our beef imports and we've talked about this before but we did get the September beef import numbers from Stats can. So I'll kind of just update you a wee bit on that. In September we were up 14%. So year to date we're still sitting up 18%. And it's, it's not North American trade from the U.S. we're down 5% less coming there. It's coming from Australia, New Zealand and even Paraguay is getting into the market which we haven't usually brought beef in from Paraguay. So that's kind of more of a.
Ground beef or what. What is that?
Absolutely got lean trim things to blend with our domestic trim to make those hamburgers, those patties, processed meats, definitely. That's what's coming in. Definitely. And that's what we're the most short of. I know that sounds strange sometimes for producers to hear, but when our cow kills down this much, we simply don't have enough hamburger beef for what consumers demand in Canada. Which is a good thing.
Yeah. We don't be ground grinding up tenderloin to feed the ground beef market. We want that extra value on those cuts. And let's import the lower value stuff.
Yeah. Although on that point, Shaun, one of the things that's really provided some cutout support is, is that things like in the, the end meets like a chuck and a round, those are now starting to get ground into lean trim because the bright price points, lean trim so high and, and certainly we're starting to see more of those kinds of cuts. But anything and everything that can. Again, it's the market that decides what goes where and what, what gets imported. And that's, that's holding true again.
Yeah.
So I think, yeah, so that, that's kind of what's filling the gap, if.
You will, how we've focused a lot about the rancher and the strong prices. What's life like right now for the feed yard trying to place these cattle besides trying to find their best friend, the banker, to increase the operating line because you just need a lot more money to fill that feed yard.
Yeah, no, this, these are, these are difficult times in. And especially this one. I want to talk about cattle cycles and past cycles, but certainly this one, as you said, off the top, is far from normal in terms where, where we've seen cow calf prices go in terms of calf and feeder cattle pricing. So that, that's going to be certainly the struggle. So on the other end of this, of the, the coin, we're going to have to see. Continue to see strong demand to keep prices strong until we get right through into 2026. We haven't seen the tightest supplies yet. That still lies ahead in 2026. And a lot depends on exactly because we really haven't started to, you know, increase any kind of numbers in the US Or Canada in terms of heifer retention. So a big question mark still lies around that Mexican border. You know, that was the big surprise for 2025, removing about a million head from the US system. So that's, that's part of the, you know, the reason why the bullish market got so much more bullish than we were expecting.
Okay. So that's the feed yard. I understand like what the packer caught between you, the feed yard and the grocer and what's life like there?
Well, let's talk a little bit because one of the other reports that came in, Shaun was from Stats can was the August retail beef price.
Oh yeah, yeah.
So we've seen these prices keep marching higher all the way through the system. Right, right from that beef level up that the consumer sees that retail right on through the chain. So when they came out with their prices for August, we did see the beef market actually drop a wee bit from July. I know people are going to say I didn't see that. But anyways, that's what stats can saying just a wee bit. Nevertheless, August prices are 10% higher than last August at the counter nationally. In Canada, pork prices in August were up 11% from July. So a big jump in pork prices. This is getting retail prices and now they're 17% higher than they were a year ago. So again some big strength there. Chicken prices were flat here in Canada from August compared to July, but compared to a year ago they're up 11%. And when you go through and look at the year over year price increases, it's across the board on everything. So so far, you know, this year packers saw some times of some very good margins. When the cutout dropped off in the last month, margins dropped back off 100 to 100 bucks in the, in the red roughly. So it's, it's going to be an ebb and flow. But there's different times in the cattle cycle where different parts of the segment make money and lose money. And so that's, that's what I expect. It isn't all going to be roses for sure.
You know, I'm really because of all my travels back and forth across Canada. In the US you eat out lots and I like to go for a steak. Got to remortgage my house to do so sometimes. But you know one thing I notice is, is what cuts on a menu are really being featured. And you know one cut that is often used for things like fajitas and carne asada is a skirt steak. And I have seen a skirt steak showing up a little bit more on the menu which is a little bit of a mid lower value value cut. Still not cheap but obviously trying to work in some, some more value conscious menu items on a, at a steakhouse.
And that's good to hear Shaun, because from a cattle producer's perspective that's what we need to see is more of the different value cuts give the consumer those choices. Right. Some will still want to buy that high end steak, but there's a, there's a big part of the population that's looking for some value. We sure like them to stay in beef. And so that's great news, Shaun. I like that.
And thanks so much for joining us here this week for the Beef Market Update. Happy grilling this weekend and we'll talk to you again in a couple weeks.
Hey, thanks on YouTube.
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